Recession:Have We Exited ?Opeyemi Agbaje Answers

It was announced that Nigeria has come out of recession some few days ago by the relevant agencies. With food prices down and the price reduction of PMS. This has been heralded as a silver lining, but the country’s economist has warned that it is not yet Uhuru for Nigerians. They argued that for the economy to be out of recession ,it must reflect on the daily lives of the citizenry.

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In a chat with the Channels TV crew, Opeyemi Agbaje,an economist and policy analyst said that , we as a country didn’t do a proper diagnosis of the reason why Nigeria entered reaccession and not oil.

The issue of political and security was one thing that made the country dive into the deep waters of recession. He said that agriculture was affected because of security issues ,when the North East is taken into consideration, about 3.2% of people are in the agriculture. This is a downside result of the security issues in the zone. People are not going to farm and when they don’t farm ,economic action will be punctured. Conflicts has impacted on the production of agriculture allied products.

He also opined that , there is a need for high level of modernisation in the agronomy. The government must find a way to remind conflicts. The issue if conflict is impacting on Nigeria agronomy.

The NBS classification categorised industrial sector from oil refining manufacturing. Though solid minerals and oil refinery has recorded some growth in single digits apart from oil refining , but manufacturing is in negative. The food beverage and tobacco moved to below 4% and this is a far cry from what was expected. In the term of industrial outlook, it seems that there is drab outlook. The sector had a far cry from the anticipated growth which is 7.5%

Though, inflation has trended downward, even though it is still high at sixteen percent. There is still a policy challenge with the structure of grow coupled with inequality and equity. There is a need for a deliberate policy requirement that must focus on the poor and the middle class. This would affect the farmers at the subsistence levels. The poor can’t just get better because of great economy growth ,because it can be noted that economic growth can be inequitable.

Market reflective prices for utilities like electricity, fuel and gas are good in the ERGP but the issue of low implementation the trend. The ERGP is a great policy but with low implementation,that is where he faulted it. He said that ” we shouldn’t be happy that we have exited the recession bit we should look at sustainability of this trend with growth affecting the poor “.

 

Tony Nwosu .E.

 

 

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