Nigeria and the History of Epileptic Power Supply

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In 1972, the military government of Gowon built a transmission line connecting the Niger Dams Authority in Kainji/Jebba to the Electricity Company of Nigeria. Thus began the unification of the Nigerian Electricity System as a single grid. That actually, was there beginning of the power problems of Nigeria. By 1975, NEPA was fully established.

So Nigeria moved away from regional power supply to the National Power Supply System. Via a single grid.

See the data below:
Installed Generation Capacity: 14,000mW
Connected Generation Capacity: 11,000mW
Actual Average Daily Generation: 4,000mW
Transmission Network Capacity: 7,000mW
Transmission Losses: 25%
Actual Load to DISCOs: 3,000mW
Average Distribution Losses: 22%
Actual Average Metered Load: 2,000mW
Estimated National Demand: 120,000mW
Base Load Demand: 40,000mW

Forgive me but do take note of the data; they ain’t that difficult to understand as such.

The actual national demand is 120,000mW. The actual average daily supplied by TCM is 3,000mW. Kindly compare…see the shortfall? A single grid system with long distance transmission causes a Transmission Loss of 25%. As result, if the average Daily Generation is 4,000 by the GENCOs, what gets to the Load Centres (consumers) is 3,000mW. In Pakistan, the transmission losses do not exceed 3%. Why? Short distance transmission or Distributed Generation…

The government would tell you that the market in Nigeria is 4,000mW? It is NOT true. The truth is that all the Sub-stations owned by TCN have a total capacity of 4,000mW! That does not even begin to satisfy the tip of the market. The Base Load requirement is 40,000mW; that is the smallest size of the market!

But look at the Transmission Capacity; a paltry 7,000mW. Even with the connected load of 11,000mW, the potential generation cannot be wheeled by the TCN! In order to build to capacity, the TCN needs to be expanded to about 60,000mW. The capital outlay would be about 1.5 trillion Naira. The federal government does not have the capacity nor the funds to do that. And yes, we would need to expand the generation to are least 75,000mW with a capital outlay of over 4 trillion Naira! Where would the federal government get that money? Yet they tell you that they would provide electricity for all. It is not true! They simply cannot!

Dear Readers, kindly see the Electricity Map of Nigeria (maybe I’d provide that in subsequent editions), you shall observe that the generation assets (power stations) are located ONLY around the Western Atlantic Coast from Delta to Lagos and the Western Middle Belt around Kainji/Jebba/Shiroro. 75% of the contiguous land mass of Nigeria has no single generation asset. In Nigeria, there’s one generation asset every 1000 square kilometers. Compare this map to that of the USA and you’d find generation assets every 100 square kilometers.
Whereas the USA has an embedded Distributed Generation System has the primary philosophy for power supply based on the municipality, Nigeria has a unitary system based on stupidity!

The NERC would tell you that they have a policy for microgrids and Distributed Generation, what we don’t need from them is their over regulation! We don’t need them one bit in municipal generation.

Ladies and Gentlemen, in order to provide adequate and reliable electricity for our towns and cities, we must generate it ourselves. To generate our electricity, we need Municipal Governments; to have municipal governments, we must abandon the 1999 Constitution; not to amend it, but to cast it aside!

Common sense shows that the abrogation of the 1999 Constitution would help us all. The politicians tell you otherwise; ably aided by individuals that ought to know better. And they collude to keep us in the dark! It’s a disgrace!

We must #restructureOrBurst, or we remain in deep darkness!

-Baron Roy

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